Thursday, May 04, 2006

Where's the recession?

At dinner last night, a friend was bemoaning the successive increases in fuel prices.

While sympathising with him, I questioned how that increase affects driving habits. He agreed that the increase does not seem to affect demand for fuel. The queue for Lisbon this morning was no shorter than usual at the beginning of a month and most cars still carry only the driver. So either all these drivers have no alternative but to use their cars, or they are unaffected by the fuel price increases.

Empirical evidence also shows no shortage of shoppers for food, clothes or DIY products and new car sales are picking up well. So where is the recession?

Strangely, it appears to be easier to book doctors' appointments - how can healthcare be considered discretionary expenditure? The housing market also remains flat, a clear sign of lack of consumer confidence.

Maybe Victor Constancio, recently reappointed (for services rendered to his current masters) could explain where the recession lies. Maybe not...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

With your argument arising from such a profound research on this topic I might be better if shot in the head!
(by the way… you might find it worthwhile to read the entire article in the printed version: given your keenness for profound research I’m sure you would love it, and the JdN managers would surely appreciate one more reader)

Best,
rpj